Data bank
Medical inflation, 2016 to 2026
Medical costs covered by insurance are forecast to rise by 9.8% to 11.1% worldwide in 2026, according to the four main broker surveys. That is several times general inflation. WTW, which also reports what actually happened each year, forecast too high in 6 of the 10 years since 2016 and too low in 3: 2022, 2023 and 2024, as costs surged after the pandemic.
Every forecast and actual published by WTW, Aon, Mercer Marsh Benefits and Lockton, in one place, each linked to its source. Checked September 2026.
10.3%
WTW
2026 global forecast
9.8%
Aon
2026 global forecast
11.1%
Mercer Marsh Benefits
2026 global forecast
10.9%
Lockton
2026 global forecast
Ten years of forecasts
Forecast against what actually happened
WTW's forecast for each year, against the actual rate it reported a year later. On average the actual came in 0.3 points below the forecast.
Forecast bars in grey, actual in blue. Actual rates as reported by WTW in the following year's edition.
Expat (international) health plans
Aon, Lockton and Mercer Marsh Benefits report expat (international) health plans separately from local employer plans. These are the rates closest to what expats and digital nomads face.
Medical trend is the expected rise in claims costs per person. It is not the same as the change in your premium.
Aon: 11% (US / UK expat policies) and 15% (APAC / Middle East expat policies), 2026 forecast, gross.
Aon's 2026 Global Medical Trend Rates Report, which covers expat policies for the first time, forecasts a gross medical trend of 11% for 2026 for expat policies in its 'US / UK' group and 15% for its 'APAC / Middle East' group. These are forecasts by Aon's own professionals and are not part of Aon's global average.
Aon 2026 reportMercer Marsh Benefits
10.5% 2024 (estimate) · 11.0% 2025 forecast · 10.6% 2026 forecast.
Mercer Marsh Benefits' Health Trends 2026 puts the medical trend for global expat (IPMI) plans at 10.5% for 2024, 11.0% for 2025 and 10.6% for 2026. The 2024 figure is a retrospective estimate and the 2025 and 2026 figures are forecasts. Each is a straight average of 12 IPMI insurers' responses, collected in June and July 2025, and MMB leaves them out of its global averages.
Mercer Marsh Benefits 2026 report (Appendix A p.41)Lockton
Lockton (2026 report) projects 10.9% for international (expatriate) medical plans in 2026.
10.45% 2024 (current-year estimate, 2025 report) · 11.1% 2025 expected (2026 report) · 10.9% 2026 projected
Aon 'gross'; MMB 'not net of inflation'.
By region
By country: expat destinations
What it means for your premium
Medical trend is the rise in claims costs, not your renewal price, which also moves with your age and your plan's claims. But premiums tend to follow it over time. See what cover costs today in the Health Insurance Cost Index.
▸Every figure in tables
Global, 2016 to 2026
| Year | WTW forecast | WTW actual | Aon forecast | MMB forecast | MMB actual | Lockton forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 10.3% | – | 9.8% | 11.1% | – | 10.9% |
| 2025 | 10.4% | 10.0% | 10.0% | 10.9% | – | 11.7% |
| 2024 | 9.9% | 10.4% | 10.1% | 11.7% | 10.6% | – |
| 2023 | 10.0% | 10.7% | 9.2% | 12.6% | 12.0% | – |
| 2022 | 8.1% | 8.8% | 7.4% | 9.5% | 10.1% | – |
| 2021 | 8.1% | 8.1% | 7.2% | – | 10.1% | – |
| 2020 | 6.8% | 5.9% | 8.0% | 9.5% | 5.7% | – |
| 2019 | 7.6% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 9.6% | 9.7% | – |
| 2018 | 7.2% | 7.1% | 8.4% | – | 9.7% | – |
| 2017 | 7.8% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 9.7% | – | – |
| 2016 | 9.1% | 7.3% | 9.1% | 9.8% | 9.9% | – |
Gross rates. MMB is Mercer Marsh Benefits; its global figure excludes the US. Aon and Lockton do not publish actuals.
By region (WTW)
| Region (WTW) | 2025 forecast | 2025 actual | 2026 forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| Asia Pacific | 12.3% | 13.2% | 14.0% |
| Europe | 9.4% | 8.3% | 8.2% |
| Latin America | 10.1% | 10.5% | 11.9% |
| Middle East and Africa | 12.1% | 10.3% | 11.3% |
| North America | 8.7% | 9.4% | 9.2% |
By country
| Country | WTW 2026 | Aon 2026 | Mercer Marsh Benefits 2026 | Lockton 2026 | WTW 2025: forecast / actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thailand | 10.8% | 14.8% | 14.6% | 15.0% | 14.2% / 10.8% |
| Singapore | 16.9% | 13.0% | 14.0% | 13.5% | 12.0% / 15.5% |
| Hong Kong | 9.9% | 9.0% | 10.5% | 9.5% | 9.8% / 9.7% |
| China | 11.1% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 10.8% / 10.6% |
| India | 12.9% | 11.5% | 9.9% | 11.0% | 13.2% / 11.4% |
| United Arab Emirates | – | 11.0% | – | 12.0% | 11.5% / – |
| United Kingdom | 10.0% | 12.0% | – | 10.0% | 12.6% / 10.6% |
| United States | 9.6% | 9.5% | – | – | 10.2% / 9.7% |
| Mexico | – | 14.8% | – | 14.5% | – |
| Brazil | – | 9.7% | – | 12.0% | – |
| Indonesia | – | – | 17.8% | – | – |
| Malaysia | – | – | 15.0% | – | – |
| Philippines | – | – | 16.0% | – | – |
| Vietnam | – | – | 11.6% | – | – |
Common questions
What is medical inflation (medical trend)?
Medical trend is the yearly increase in the cost of medical claims per insured person. It combines price rises for treatment and drugs with people using more care. It is usually well above general inflation, and it is the main driver of health insurance price increases.
How much will medical costs rise in 2026?
The four main global surveys forecast average medical cost increases of 9.8% to 11.1% for 2026: WTW 10.3%, Aon 9.8%, Mercer Marsh Benefits 11.1%, Lockton 10.9%. Each survey measures it differently, so compare figures within one publisher.
Are the medical trend forecasts accurate?
WTW and Mercer Marsh Benefits also report the actual rate for past years. WTW has the longest series: across 10 years (2016 to 2025), the actual global rate came in below the forecast in 6 years and above it in 3 (2022, 2023 and 2024). The average gap was 0.3 points, and the biggest miss was 2016: forecast 9.1%, actual 7.3%.
Does medical trend equal my insurance premium increase?
Not exactly. Your renewal also depends on your age, your plan's own claims, the insurer's pricing and currency. But over time, premiums for international health insurance tend to follow medical trend, which is why a plan that costs a certain amount today is likely to cost noticeably more in five years.
Is medical inflation higher for expat plans?
It depends on the survey and region. For 2026, Mercer Marsh Benefits forecasts 10.6% for global expat (IPMI) plans, and Aon forecasts 11% for US / UK expat policies and 15% for APAC / Middle East expat policies, and Lockton projects 10.9% for international (expatriate) plans.
Method
- Figures only. We take the published rates from each report, never its text, and link every edition.
- Different methods. WTW surveys insurers and weights by GDP per capita. Aon surveys its offices. Mercer Marsh Benefits surveys insurers, excludes the US and uses a simple average. Lockton surveys its offices and insurers. Compare within one publisher.
- Actuals. The rate a publisher later reported for a past year. WTW and Mercer Marsh Benefits publish them; Aon only repeats its forecast.
- Copies. Where a publisher's own file could not be opened, figures come from a copy of the same report hosted elsewhere, marked with an asterisk.
How to cite
HealthiNomad Medical Inflation Data Bank, September 2026, compiled from WTW, Aon, Mercer Marsh Benefits and Lockton. https://healthinomad.com/medical-inflation
Sources
Each year links to that edition of the report or its press release. * Copy of the report hosted elsewhere.